Is Texas the Newest Swing State?

In the blog from HuffPost, Roque Planas writes an article titled “A Beto O’Rourke Presidential Campaign Could Flip Texas.” Throughout the piece, Planas speculates the possibility of Texas flipping, and how this may happen in the next presidential election. Speculators say that the historically known red state might be changing to blue with this new candidate.

Planas uses the results from the Midterm elections from last year to back up his argument as well as the results from internet poll conducted by UT Texas that states that only 39% of the population in the area would vote for Trump again. Beto, a Democrat candidate, won a substantial amount of votes against his opposition, Ted Cruz, last year during the Midterm elections and surprised many people. His campaign is focused on low-turnout cities (even if they were mostly blue), strong red counties in the north, and large cities such as Austin and Houston. He encourages opposing parties, such as Republicans and Independents, to come together and join him.

The author is optimistic about this change and brings valid and interesting points into the discussion. Texas being only 45 percent white but with a low-turnout rate of Latinos seems contradictory to his argument, but he reminds us that this demographic along with millennial voters has been increasing. I think he is clear and realistic when he claims these are just predictions and that historically this has not happened. Just as the writer does, I believe that if it were to happen now is more likely than it has ever been. More liberal leaning people have been migrating to Texas, and the Democratic voters have been growing as more people turn 18 and are incentivized to vote. People were very hopeful during the midterms, yet Ted Cruz still won despite Beto’s intense campaigning in the state. We also have to remember that it is not only Texas that will determine this election and there are many white Republican states out there that are less likely to flip. In the end, it will depend on what the rest of the country is leaning towards and how many people are still convinced in voting for Trump.